Renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are lifting crude oil prices as bullish technical signals emerge, pointing to a potential multi-week recovery in WTI.
Key takeaways
- Renewed US-Iran tensions have boosted WTI as markets reprice the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
- WTI has formed bullish reversal signals above key support, suggesting a potential multi-week recovery is underway.
- A break above $76.60 on the West Texas Oil CFD may open the way toward $81.87/$85.50, while $66.10 remains the key downside support.
WTI crude oil outperforms on reignited Hormuz risk
Fig. 1: Global cross-asset performances from 1 Jul to 10 Jul 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
During the first 10 days of July, global financial markets experienced a distinct rotation away from export-heavy manufacturing hubs and toward energy security. The NYMEX WTI crude oil futures surged 4.1% month-to-date as of 10 July 2026, while the AI-infrastructure/high memory bandwidth semiconductor chips global barometer, South Korea’s KOSPI, plummeted by 10% over the same period (see Fig. 1).
The primary catalyst for WTI’s sharp month-to-date reversal is the sudden breakdown in diplomacy and subsequent targeted military attacks between the US and Iran, which increases the risk of renewed maritime security threats, potential oil supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and a potential breakdown of the recent US-Iran interim peace deal signed on 17 June 2026.
Let’s now unpack more details from a technical analysis perspective.
Bullish reversal elements detected
Fig. 2: West Texas Oil CFD medium-term trend as of 13 Jul 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
The 43% plunge in the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) seen in the past four months from the 52-week high of 119.54 printed on 9 March 2026 to the 2 July 2026 low of 67.73 has started to stabilise and stalled right above a key pull-back support zone at 66.60/66.10 (the former major descending trendline resistance from 28 September 2023 high) (see Fig. 2).
In addition, price action has broken above the 20-day moving average and formed a weekly bullish reversal “Inverted Hammer” candlestick pattern in the recent week of 6 July 2026, coupled with a bullish breakout and retest of its pullback support at around the 50-level on its 4-hour RSI momentum indicator.
These observations suggest a potential multi-week build-up of bullish momentum. Watch the 66.60/66.10 key medium-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 76.60, the intermediate resistance (also the 200-day moving average), sees the medium-term resistances coming in at 81.87/85.50 (also the 50-day moving average) and 93.85.
On the other hand, a failure to hold and a daily close below 66.10 invalidates the bullish reversal scenario, exposing the next supports at 61.50 and 55.00.
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice.
