Weekly update: US stock markets quickly bounced to new record highs on the announcement of a 30-day period to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and a Memorandum of Understanding – a final draft agreement for a proper peace deal.
Global asset prices are now being driven by the fast-moving peace process between the United States and Iran.
After two months of a fragile ceasefire, the situation has quickly moved from a tense standoff to real progress toward a formal agreement.1 This shift is causing major investors in North America and around the world to move their money in response.
The main reason for this big change came on Monday, when President Trump announced a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)2 between the two countries. For those who haven’t heard the term, an MoU is a non-binding agreement that sets out the basic terms and expectations for a future treaty.
This agreement gives both sides 30 days to fully reopen the important Strait of Hormuz and includes economic concessions to Iran to help the talks succeed.3
Even though there were a few minor military incidents overnight4, Wall Street is largely ignoring them. Traders are focused on the Memorial Day announcement and believe the push for peace is strong enough to overcome small setbacks.
WTI Crude Oil 4H chart. May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The energy markets have reacted swiftly to this diplomatic breakthrough, with WTI Crude Oil prices witnessing a sharp retracement toward the low $90 level.
Prices have remained anchored near these recent lows throughout the week, suggesting that a decent portion of the war-related risk premium is rapidly dissipating.
With energy costs cooling and supply chain anxieties receding, major North American equity indices have surged to fresh record peaks, notably the Nasdaq, which has crested the 30,000 milestone.5
While sentiment remains undeniably bullish, the velocity of this ascent leaves no margin for error in the ongoing peace process; Wall Street is now fully pricing in a seamless and definitive final accord.
USD/CAD technical chart
USD/CAD 4H chart. May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
USD/CAD maintains its 1.3550 to 1.3950 range, with the action continuing to rebound within as we speak, approaching the upper end of it – watch reactions to the 1.3850 micro resistance.
Levels of interest for USD/CAD:
Resistance levels
- 1.3850 resistance
- 1.3900 to 1.3925 support turned resistance (range highs)
- 1.3950 mini-resistance (range highs and recent top)
Support levels
- 1.3800 mini-pivot +/- 15 pips
- 1.3630 to 1.3660 key pivot (4H 50-period MA)
- 1.3550 main 2025 support (range lows)
- 1.3500 psychological support
US dollar mid-week performance vs major currencies
USD vs other majors since last Wednesday, May 20, 2026 - Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The dollar is pursuing its rebound against FX Majors but is currently losing some steam as the conflict looks to be ending soon – Crude Oil maintains a high correlation to the petrodollar6, hence traders will need to continue to observe this development.
US and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday (June 3rd)
US and Canadian data towards next Wednesday (June 3rd). Source: MarketPulse Economic Calendar.
Footnotes:
1 - https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605263796
2 - https://albertmohler.com/2026/05/26/briefing-5-26-26/
3 - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/05/24/us-iran-near-deal-extend-ceasefire-reopen-hormuz/
5 - https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nasdaq-100-tops-30-000-005523578.html
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice.
