Highlights from our latest issue:
S&P 500 EPS rose 27.6% YoY in Q2 but this appears to have been flattered by temporary factors.
The S&P 500 forward implied equity risk premium has fallen to 2.15%, raising our estimate of modified duration to about 45
years, making index valuation highly sensitive to long-term bond yields.
FTSE 100 companies have announced significant buybacks. Incorporating these into a Total Shareholder Yield model, we estimate the FTSE 100 index is modestly under-valued.
ZEW Survey confidence lifted in August. But rising Bund yields, solid EPS growth expectations, and a solid forward P/E suggest significant headwinds.