Forex Today: US Dollar benefits from risk aversion as Middle East situation heats up
Here is what you need to know on Monday, July 13:
Safe-haven flows dominate the action in financial markets at the beginning of the new week as tensions in the Middle East escalate further. The economic calendar will not feature any high-tier macroeconomic data releases on Monday. In the Asian trading hours on Tuesday, trade balance data from China will be watched closely by market participants, ahead of the highly-anticipated June inflation report from the United States (US) and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh's testimony before the US House Financial Services Committee.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.16% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.35% | 0.02% | 0.04% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | 0.07% | 0.22% | -0.03% | 0.26% | -0.03% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.16% | -0.07% | 0.17% | -0.09% | 0.21% | -0.09% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.31% | -0.22% | -0.17% | -0.26% | 0.03% | -0.26% | -0.22% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | 0.03% | 0.09% | 0.26% | 0.30% | 0.03% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | -0.35% | -0.26% | -0.21% | -0.03% | -0.30% | -0.25% | -0.24% | |
| NZD | -0.02% | 0.03% | 0.09% | 0.26% | -0.03% | 0.25% | 0.03% | |
| CHF | -0.04% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.22% | -0.04% | 0.24% | -0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on Sunday that it launched strikes against dozens of Iranian military targets for the second consecutive day, with an aim to further weaken the Islamic Republic’s ability to strike civilian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran said that it hit US military sites in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Jordan, in retaliation to the US' renewed aggression. Crude Oil prices opened with a bullish gad and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate was last seen trading near $74, rising about 3.5% on the day.
The US Dollar (USD) also benefits from the souring market mood, with the USD Index staying in positive territory slightly above 101.00, while US stock index futures lose between 0.3% and 1.4% on the day.
The Fed released its Semiannual Monetary Policy Report in the American session on Friday. The publication showed that the US central bank noted that inflation remains elevated, driven by tariffs and factors related to the Middle East war and AI. Regarding the labor market conditions, "a marked slowdown in immigration and ongoing declines in labor force participation due to the aging of the population led to a slowdown in labor supply growth," the document said.
EUR/USD stabilizes at around 1.1400 following the bearish action seen in the Asian trading hours on Monday.
GBP/USD corrects lower and trades below 1.3400 after posting marginal gains in the previous week.
Gold starts the week under bearish pressure and trades near $4,050, losing more than 1.5% on a daily basis.
USD/JPY gains traction following Friday's sharp decline and trades at around 162.20 in the European morning on Monday, rising about 0.3% on the day.
Risk sentiment FAQs
What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets?
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics?
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"?
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"?
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.